1. China isn’t so much aggressively devaluing its currency as it’s giving in to market forces (the CNY would likely be much weaker vs. the USD if it were to trade fully and freely).

2. The 9/1 China tariffs can still be avoided – Trump didn’t condemn the entire trade negotiation process in his 9/1 tariff threat but instead took issue w/the p…[Read more]

Latest notes on S&P 500 and Trade:
1) the ~2850 level should still be thought of as support and moves up through 2900 w/o 9/1 resolution will likely be faded

2)the odds of avoiding the 9/1 tariffs are likely above 50% right now

3)rescinding the Sept 1 threat doesn’t necessarily change the dynamic dramatically –the ~$178 figure would still sta…[Read more]

“HF beta has spiked, equities have performed very strongly so far this year with P/E rerating, PMIs continue to weaken, DXY has broken out and the renewed trade escalation is a problem. Given these, and as we are in what is seasonally the poorest time of the year, markets could experience a few weeks worth of a pullback”… continue to believe…[Read more]