Mizuho: “Late on Friday S&P affirmed Italy’s rating at BBB Negative. Action was perhaps unlikely given that S&P had previously indicated that they will not rush into drastic rating action, and will focus on the country’s long-term growth potential. ECB buying is expected to cover most new Italian debt issuance due to the pandemic, but S&P not…[Read more]

Merrill: “Our outlook is for a sharp and severe decline in activity akin to the broader economy; we forecast a record-breaking 30% qoq saar drop in 2Q GDP with a peak unemployment rate of 15.6% in 2Q. The economy will likely shed a cumulative 15-20 million workers.”

Hedge funds have been selling for 8 of the past 9 days
Activity levels remain subdued as positioning remains suppressed. L/S funds have sold longs for 8 of the past 9 days. HFs were net sellers of equities again on Tues with selling led by L/S funds who were adding to shorts, and also selling on the long side. Nets fell over 2% to 38%,– this c…[Read more]

Goldman Sachs: April has already seen nearly the largest monthly net $ selling of US equities by hedge funds in 6 years. Seems clear that the rally is hated and in places has even been sold short

Morgan Stanley: Activity levels remain subdued as positioning remains suppressed. L/S funds have sold longs for 8 of the past 9 days. HFs were net sellers of equities again on Tues with selling led by L/S funds who were adding to shorts, and also selling on the long side. Nets fell over 2% to 38%,– this current level represents the 2nd %-tile o…[Read more]

Credit Suisse: caution
Garthwaite expects near-term consolidation in equities. Most important reasons:

1) to some extent, credit leads equity and we no longer find high-yield spreads clearly attractive

2) market performance is in line with earnings revisions (which look set to deteriorate) – we take our European 2020 EPS growth forecast to -…[Read more]

Citigroup Q&A:
1. Is This Bear Market Done? — Not yet. The central bank bid has won out in recent

weeks, but we suspect that profit concerns have not yet been seen off

completely.

2. Can Valuations Help? — Not really. CAPEs smooth out extreme EPS volatility, but they have been very inconsistent in calling the bottom of previous bear mar…[Read more]