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Seth Golden posted an update 5 years ago
GS: “Our economists forecast that global growth will rebound next year, such that the deceleration since late-2017 will prove to be a mid-cycle slowdown rather than a recession”.
GS Estimates relatively benign $11b of US equities for sale. Unclear if this is quarter focused – as monthly rebalance flows normally significantly larger than quarterly. -
Seth Golden and Richard are now friends 5 years ago
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Seth Golden posted an update 5 years ago
Guggenheim, saying it’s “late to the party,” ups $SNAP to buy, $22 target. “… under-appreciated core fundamental momentum at the company, particularly with difficult-to-reach younger users in the U.S. and expansion potential outside the United States.”
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Seth Golden started the topic Jefferies on 5G in the forum Apple Inc. (AAPL) 5 years ago
Equity analysts Kyle McNealy and George Notter have just come out with a recommendation for investors to buy Apple, and a target for shares to rise to $260. They say Wall Street fails to appreciate how much the company stands to benefit from fifth generation cellular network technology, which basically promises faster data connection for…[Read more]
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Seth Golden posted an update 5 years ago
China’s exports to the U.S., similar to 2016 -
Seth Golden started the topic Morgan Stanley Slashes Amazon estimates in the forum FANG Stock Headlines & Happenings 5 years ago
MS make significant cut to AMZN numbers
1. We remain bullish AMZN’s accelerating top-line retail trends as the 2Q:19 roll-out of 1-day shipping has led to accelerating unit and retail revenue growth….2……but our analysis finds that AMZN’s 2Q:19 1-day shipping costs / unit were 2.2X higher than average shipping cost / unit, fulfillment cos…[Read more]
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Seth Golden posted an update 5 years ago
US equities post the largest back-to-back inflows on record +$38B. -
Seth Golden posted an update 5 years ago
Investment implications
Most worries do not provide a basis for overall market action. Trying to time the market using headlines is a road to ruin. Some worries provide opportunities or warnings about specific stocks or sectors. This requires doing your homework to find the right themes. Then you must be contrarian, acting when others are…[Read more]
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Seth Golden replied to the topic JPM incrementally positive on iPhone outlook in the forum Apple Inc. (AAPL) 5 years ago
“We believe that the trajectory of iPhone demand is improving in the September quarter and see more upside than downside risk to our September quarter.” (Huberty)
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Seth Golden and franmadrid are now friends 5 years ago
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Seth Golden posted an update 5 years ago
Buybacks:
* Microsoft ($40b)
* Target ($5b)
* Darden ($500m) -
Seth Golden posted an update 5 years ago
A member of #China’s negotiating trade team will visit #US farmers in Nebraska and Montana next week, reported SCMP citing a source.
The senior official is from China’s Ministry of Agriculture, but the report didn’t name the official. -
Seth Golden posted an update 5 years ago
GOLDMAN: “We do not believe that this widening in repurchase spreads is a precursor to a period of financial market stress – it appears to be driven by technical factors, rather than diminishing investor confidence in the market, as we saw in 2008 ..”
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Seth Golden posted an update 5 years ago
If the first two cuts in a new cycle are 25 basis points, stocks historically have done quite well. Last 5 cycles saw S&P 500 up 9.7% six months later and 16.7% a year later.
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Seth Golden posted an update 5 years ago
only 10% of $VIX closes since 1990 have been between 18-20. The VIX isn’t mean reverting (~19.7) but rather mode reverting (~12.4). Big VIX spikes drag the mean up but the majority of the time the VIX is well below 15. -
Seth Golden posted an update 5 years ago
today I thought I would simply show how SPY has performed between the time of the announcement and the NYSE close on Fed Days since Mr. Powell took over. -
Seth Golden and Danny Miller are now friends 5 years ago
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Seth Golden posted an update 5 years ago
Brexit Update from JPM
JPM: As the threat of an October no-deal Brexit fades, a January no-deal event is a rising risk. Parliament passed a law forcing PM Johnson to request an extension by October 19 if no deal can be reached with the EU, and talks between the two sides show little progress. It looks likely that Johnson will either have to renege…[Read more] -
Seth Golden posted an update 5 years ago
Goldman Sachs:
1. GS estimates CTA/trend length is moderately net long again (~$75bn global eq), and expect some moderate near-term buying to continue in the baseline and most mkt scenarios to re-establish more long positions.2. For the systematic macro community, more trend signals continued to turn positive last week – especially at the…[Read more]
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Seth Golden and Daniela Meneghetti are now friends 5 years ago
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