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Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 10 months ago
2018’s median VIX is right around 15.50 as we kick-off the final month of the year for traders. We are essentiall back to levels expressed in 2015, when rate hikes first began during this expansion cycle. -
Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 10 months ago
The world is suffering from the loss of George Bush this morning! Our condolences to the Bush family and all grieving. With eternal admiration for a life well lived,… -
Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 10 months ago
Early headlines from G-20 Summit https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/30/stocks-set-to-open-mixed-as-high-stakes-g-20-puts-trade-in-spotlight.html
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Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 10 months ago
Before the market opens, contango is modest at 1.3%. Volatility is on the rise ahead of G-20 Summit headlines. -
Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 10 months ago
PCE data proves less inflation than hoped for by the Fed https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pGNBc3EjjhM -
Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 10 months ago
U.S. and China said to be exploring suspending further tariffs https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/29/us-and-china-exploring-suspension-of-further-tariffs-through-spring-in-exchange-for-new-talks-wsj.html
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Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 10 months ago
What to expect from Jerome Powell’s speech this afternoon https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/27/everyone-is-going-to-be-watching-powell-deliver-his-most-important-speech-yet.html
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Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 10 months ago
First time in nearly 3.5 weeks that the first 3 months futures contracts are all in contango. -
Seth Golden started the topic 2018 Cyber Monday Sets Record in the forum State of Retail in U.S. 5 years, 10 months ago
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Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 10 months ago
Smart Money Index can be leading indicator for S&P500, has collapsed. Index measures tendency for smart investors to sell into usual initial euphoria at mkt open & buy position back in 30 mins before close. Doesn’t work when BEARS begin to dominate market. (via SG) -
Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 10 months ago
If you’re looking for a demand side problem for Crude Oil, it simply doesn’t exist -
Seth Golden started the topic UK Black Friday strong start in the forum Amazon Retail 5 years, 10 months ago
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Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 10 months ago
Various thoughts on AAPL share price from market watchers https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-is-the-next-big-line-in-the-sand-for-apple-shares-say-strategists-2018-11-23?mod=newsviewer_click -
Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 11 months ago
Term structure is in contango on m1 (December futures contract). It is very light contango of 1.10% presently. -
Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 11 months ago
$SPX just hit the October low -
Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 11 months ago
CNBC survey from CEOs on what is concerning them the most https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/20/us-trade-war-with-china-wont-be-ending-anytime-soon-cnbc-cfo-survey.html-
Huge drop in Consumer Demand as an external risk factor when comparing Q3 to Q4, which at least for me and simplistically put, means one less recessionary factor to fear (consumer demand and spending). Adding that to the increased concerns about US trade policies and FED policy supports what you have written before and wrote again in today’s daily…[Read more]
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@upspeed Yes, the consumer doesn’t seem to be a problem. Amazing how much fear is being pushed into the market and disbelief for the future economic expansion in 2019. But, I guess that comes with the territory and unorthodox measures taken after so many years of recovery.
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I agree, and the big question is, at least for myself, how long can markets sustain this sentiment driven state? I know that “longer than one can remain solvent” is a pretty good answer, and that liquidity and exposure levels are powerful tools 🙂
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Seth, how and where do you see liquidity levels currently at in the markets?
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they are actually high because hedge funds have already largely unleveraged.
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That’s certainly reassuring. Do you have a source from where you look at these levels?
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mostly market commentary and the VIX itself as it hasn’t exploded which would indicate hedge funds need to hedge. If they had traditional leverage/exposure, they would very much need to be hedging.
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Regarding leverage, I have a chart that I would like to share here. How can I attach it to my message?
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on your profile you click on activity where you can create a post like this one here. Just below the box where you type you’ll see a little icon off to the left side. Click on it and you can upload your photo to your original post.
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Posted a comment with a chart attached if you can take a look at it and give your insight. Thanks!
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I did. In this mornings article you can also see how one can gauge leverage through margin debt levels and net non-commercial hedge fund positioning.
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Great! I just read the daily article and it was exactly what I was looking for! Thank you Seth.
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Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 11 months ago
Fed vice chair Clarida has basically forecasted a Pause in rate hikes AFTER the December rate hike to come. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/16/feds-clarida-says-central-bank-needs-to-be-in-data-dependent-mode-now-with-rate-hikes.html
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Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 11 months ago
Warren Buffet’s 10 largest Holdings. Most are in the financial sector. -
Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 11 months ago
Wal-Mart beats on earnings, revenues roughly inline, raises FY guidance. https://seekingalpha.com/news/3409940-walmart-beats-0_07-misses-revenue?app=1#email_link -
Seth Golden replied to the topic Tvix, Uvxy and etc. Theoretical Spikes… in the forum UVXY, TVIX, VXX, XIV, SVXY, VIXY, VMAX, VMIN 5 years, 11 months ago
There’s no viable way to backtest without inputting defines variables. Everything was bad in 2008, everything would be bad for ETPs as well. Best thing to do is have the macro data to forecast.
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