GS: markets bottom when you can put limits on the tail risks

To think about the conditions for a market trough, we need an explanation for what drives market recoveries in crises. The core insight is that while conditions are deteriorating rapidly, markets find it hard to be confident in the limits of the damage and so put heavy weight on deep…[Read more]

CHINESE OFFICIALS BRIEF MEDIA ON THE IMPORTANT ROLE AND EFFECTIVE DRUGS OF TCM AGAINST COVID19

JPM’s Marko Kolanovic: On the structural flow side we think conditions will however improve. With large option expiry tomorrow, a meaningful portion (~1/3) of short gamma will expire. This should reduce the chop and volatility going forward. Also given the weekly market seasonality (see here), post expiry week reversion should be a net positive…[Read more]

The White House’s top economic adviser, Larry Kudlow, said the administration may consider asking for an equity stake in corporations who want coronavirus aid from taxpayers.

“One of the ideas is, if we provide assistance, we might take an equity position,” Kudlow said Wednesday at the White House, adding that the 2008 bailout of General Motor…[Read more]

Market recap video for 3/20/2020 https://www.dropbox.com/s/djcycd536579oaz/1024-Wayne-03-16-2020__06.03.621_PM.webm?dl=0

Goldman: “we now expect real GDP growth of 0% in Q1 (from +0.7%), -5% in Q2 (from 0%), +3% in Q3 (from +1%), and +4% in Q4 (from +2¼%), with further strong gains in early 2021. This takes our 2020 GDP forecast down to +0.4% (from 1.2%).”

GS: There is no systemic risk
Feedback from conference call held Sunday.

1. 50% of Americans will contract the virus (150m people) as it’s very communicable. This is on a par with the common cold (Rhinovirus) of which there are about 200 strains and which the majority of Americans will get 2-4 per year.

2. 70% of Germany will contract it (58M…[Read more]