$SPX tactical issues near-term:

1. Gold steady above 1,700
2. Crude possibly top-ping
3. Demark sell signal
4. SPX stocks above 50-DMA 99%ile
5. Macro tensions rise
6. Month-end rebal
7. Rising NDX short interest
8. Defensive rotation (XLP higher lows)
10 MOC sell 2.7bn Thurs

Marko Kolanovic, who was one of the absolute first sell-side strategists to turn bullish, is now “dialing down” his positive outlook, based on two risks:

1. paralysis and delays in reopening the US economy

2. geopolitical tensions that could cripple the recovery of global trade

“As the market staged a substantial rally (nearly ~40%) since our…[Read more]

Positioning is extremely light
1. institutional investor positioning still appears very light. Systematic strategies have only been modest buyers and leverage remains near the lows – and likely remains there in the near-term as volatility remains high. Futures positioning remains very light and most shorts have not been covered.

2. US L/S HF n…[Read more]

Goldman Sachs: HFs finally buying en masse, as per latest GS PB data.

1. Net Leverage rose +3.8% – the largest increase in eight weeks

2. Net Leverage now 73% (91st percentile one-year).

3. All regions were net bought on the week, led in $ terms by North America and Europe.

4. Industrials saw the largest net buying in more than two years

JPM on the tactical rally in Cyclicals and in Value style, driven by an expected upmove in PMIs in May/June
“We think the rotation, which appears to have started last week, will have some legs as the investor positioning was very defensive – 70% of the equity funds that we track in Europe have been outperforming the benchmark as of end April, by 1…[Read more]

BofAML Michael Hartnett: In the past 8 weeks central banks have been buying $2.4bn per hour of financial assets. This will “fade” to $608mn in coming weeks….

#Buffett still king? Berkshire’s SEC filings, 3 biggest recent investments

1. Kraft Heinz
2. Occidental Petroleum
3. Airline stocks
4. Lost ~ $7.4 billion combined.
5. Investment of roughly $10 billion in each.
6. Airlines “a death trap for investors.”

Deutsche Bank: “The scale of the economic shock in Q2 looks much deeper than we originally estimated and despite the emergence from lockdown the return to pre-virus levels of activity is now expected to take longer”