Cross-asset strategy: This week’s Fed reiteration that it won’t hike for about three years despite extraordinary fiscal stimulus is extending the repricing of risk premia across financial markets. For us, the direction of risk premia is unambiguously higher in Bonds (high breakevens, steeper curves), but lower in Equities, HY Credit and Commodities (less earnings, default and inventory risk) and…
J.P. Morgan: The other sting in the tail from fiscal policy; higher taxes and the Value rotation
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J.P. Morgan & Merrill Lynch Lay of the Market Land
Seth Golden, , Research Reports, 0
Volatility Review Monetizing the convexity risk premium, US structuredproduct dynamics, Positioning update Implied convexity continues to exhibit very high...
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Market Recovery Process Meets Resurgence Fears
Seth Golden, , Research Reports, 0
After retreating some 4.7% in the previous week, the S&P 500 (SPX) took back some of the consolidation. For...
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The Market Knows, It Always Knows
Seth Golden, , Research Reports, 0
To suggest that the rally off of the October 27, 2023 low has been impressive probably does not do...
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The Bull Market: Of Sound Mind and Body
Seth Golden, , Research Reports, 0
As we entered 2024, investors have been told that just because the calendar changes that doesn’t mean the market...
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Pivotal Week Ahead Of An April Snooze-Fest!
Seth Golden, , Research Reports, 0
The coming week will prove a meaningful earnings week, as the Mega-cap Growth companies will be reporting their quarterly...
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Weekly Warm-up: Strong Dollar Just Another Headwind for Earnings, Leaving Unfinished Business for the Bear
Seth Golden, , Research Reports, 0
A very strong US dollar provides yet another headwind for earnings. Meanwhile, from a historical perspective, this bear market...
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Weekly Warm-up: Earnings Take Center Stage with Valuation
Seth Golden, , Research Reports, 0
Our new Fed forecast simply brings forward our call for lower equity valuations and raises the risk in the...
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Market Participants Go Fishing For Answers
Seth Golden, , Research Reports, 0
The S&P 500 (SPX) deviated from a decade-long streak of underperformance during the Memorial Day trading week this past...