Archive for category: Research Reports

by Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson and Company Recent increase in Fed balance sheet is not QE, in our view…Many...

What a quarter, right? The Q1 2023 period was a rollercoaster ride unlike any in recent history, as the...

If you came to the markets in 2008, that you likely will relate everything since and to come to...

By Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson and Team With bond markets questioning the Fed’s dot plot, bond volatility has increased...

Macro Strategy—Time to End Quantitative Tightening Fast Approaching: Quantitative tightening (QT) has reached its limits in the regional banking...

Avoid at all costs: If you’re bullish on the markets you are probably only digesting bullish data points. If...

With the back-stopping of bank deposits by the Fed/FDIC, many equity investors are asking if this is another form...

There is never a time to not be honest with oneself as an investor/trader. We should always remain objective...

The non-seasonally adjusted headline CPI eased for an eighth consecutive month to 6.0% in February (Chart 1). The seasonally...

By Ian Shephardson of Pantheon Macro Economic Slowing Wage Gains will Give the Fed Room to Pause, but not...

I don’t know that there were many investors/traders who anticipated the route in markets this past week, but there...

Critical Technical Support Holds This week’s note will be shorter than normal given the Tech playbook note we also...

 Slower spending growth in February   The growth in Bank of America credit and debit card spending per household decelerated...

To achieve long-term success over many financial market and economic cycles, observing a few rules is not enough. Too...

by Ian Shephardson of Pantheon MacroEconomic ADP and JOLTS are Unreliable Guides to Labor Market Trends The record of...

For those disappointed that February’s employment report won’t be released until March 10th, we have something to consider in...

Can’t say it hasn’t been an interesting Q1 2023, right? With the New Year getting off to a sizzling...

All intelligent investing is value investing, acquiring more than you are paying for. You must value the business in...

by Ian Shephardson of Pantheon MacroEconomics The first indication that January’s warmer-than usual weather would boost economic activity was...

Humans are addicted to doomsday narratives. I’ve noticed that sometimes people WANT things to be worse than they are,...

Stepping back from the January noise, the trends in core economic activity data are discouraging. It’s unrealistic to think...

We only know what we know! In the future, we’ll know more through experiences or dedicated educational exercises, or...

Good day Finom Group members. As I continue to recover from my illness early this year (cough/cold), we will...

Core Services Inflation is Sticky, but the Fed is Exerting a Lot of Pressure Core CPI services inflation is...