Research Report Excerpt #1 Q2-Q3 are the weakest 2 quarters of the 4-year cycle (shown above), averaging losses of...
Author Archive for: Seth Golden
A financial market resource for the every-day investor and trader.
After a first quarter decline for the major averages, and during a midterm election year, it became clear that...
Bear markets start one of two ways, and we don’t think either cause is present currently. We call them...
Morgan Stanley: Weekly Warm-up: Harder to Hide as the Bear Gets Grisly
Seth Golden, , Research Reports, 0With defensive stocks now expensive and offering little absolute upside, the S&P500 appears ready to join the ongoing bear...
Research Report Excerpt #1 Taking a step back for a moment, recognizing the landscape for 2022 doesn’t inspire a...
A midterm election cycle and year 2 of a Presidential cycle with rising rates and potentially peak inflation have...
Weekly State of the Market: Macro Still Strong, Market Still Weak
Seth Golden, , Research Reports, 0The best hedges are cash and time, which work in tandem! The answer to fear of downside risk is...
J.P. Morgan’s Marko Kolanovic: Near-term equity rally? One can buy Growth and Value
Seth Golden, , Research Reports, 0A lot has been going on in markets – aggressive Fed talk scaring investors, runaway commodity prices, war in...
No Clear Path to Easier Financial Conditions Financial conditions are a key transmission mechanism for monetary policy and geopolitical...
Weekly State of the Market: Defensives Lead Into Peak Inflation Spells Bearish Outcomes?
Seth Golden, , Research Reports, 0Our goal as a trader is to push aside FOMO. Create a bubble for yourself, shut out the noise!...
Morgan Stanley: Weekly Warm-up: Listening Carefully-to Stocks; 1Q Worse Than It Felt; Charts to Chew on
Seth Golden, , Research Reports, 0When stocks and bonds send mixed signals, we listen to stocks more attentively. The underlying message is clear: Stay...
Research Report Excerpt #1 This is not a sell-everything and run for cover moment. It’s mechanical, and if history...
A 3-week winning streak for equities came to an end for the S&P 500 (SPX) this past week. April...
“I recommend the S&P 500 index fund and have for a long, long time to people,” billionaire investor Warren...
Single-family house prices have been rising at record rates, raising the question of whether they have become disconnected with...
Cross-asset Strategy: While the geopolitical crisis and policy tightening are overhangs, risk assets have a number of supports that...
Research Report Excerpt #1 “How does Jim Cramer of CNBC do so well then?” The short answer to the...
The equity markets are on a 3-week winning streak, which is hard to accept given the quarter still ended...
WAR is stressing global supply chains, inflation rises yet the S&P 500 went RISK-ON over the last two weeks!...
Weekly Warm-up: Markets priced for tighter Fed but not for growth risks
Seth Golden, , Research Reports, 0With the Fed’s hawkish pivot, the first part half of our long standing narrative of Fire and Ice has...
Research Report Excerpt #1 A perfect depiction of setup years is recognizable in the table below, which we’ve offered...
Midterm election years are difficult trading years, but reliably strong investing years, as they setup the compounding effect. More...
“The market indexes may have bottomed, but keep in mind, making a low, forming a bottom and reaching the...
Macro Strategy—No Respite For The Weary: After two years of a pandemic, the world now has to deal with...
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