MS Mike Wilson: Summing It Up: 2020≠ 1999
Going back to the1999 analogy, today’s recessionary environment is very different from 1999 when the economy was booming and most companies were engaging in classic late-cycle behavior that entails excessive spending on capex, including technology goods. As a result, many of the largest tech companies were growing revenue 50%+ in 1999,especially those levered to the bubble in telecommunications
spending. These bubble fundamentals are what led to the bubble valuations. In the absence of bubble fundamentals or even a reset on 2H growth expectations that may
now be too high, it’s unlikely we get the blow-off move in valuations like1999.