CITI: too early for cyclicals
1. Since the sell-off started, the performance gap between global Cyclical (-21%) and Defensive (-10%) sectors has been 11%.

2. In the last five global downturns, the average performance gap between Cyclicals and Defensives has been 20%.

3. We think the current performance gap could double.

4. When to overweight cyclicals? Historically, cheap valuations haven’t been enough to trigger the recovery trade. Instead investors need to see signs of sustained improvement in the global economy. That moment seems some way off.