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Seth Golden posted an update 4 years, 7 months ago
1. A number of the high-frequency indicators we track suggest that the global economy is in the process of bottoming out. Consumers’ future expectations have improved, mobility trends have moved up from their troughs and consumer spending is contracting more slowly than in the early weeks of the outbreak.
2. Hence, while global growth will trough at -7.5%Y in 2Q20 on our estimates (far below the -2.4%Y in 1Q09), global and DM output will reach pre-recession levels in four and eight quarters, respectively, as compared with six and fourteen quarters during the GFC.
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thanks Seth…the MOVE or bond vol index has fallen to more normal levels…has often preceded equity vol in both directions…perhaps could be function of Fed intervention etc in bond market but interesting nonetheless…
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