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Seth Golden posted an update 4 years, 9 months ago
Presidential election years tend to result in increasing uncertainty and slower investment. Our analysts going back to the 1992 election suggests investmentconfidence (measured using the US Manufacturing PMI) tends to decline starting 6 months before Election Day. PMIs showed sequential growth 70% of the time
through June, but that figure declined to 45% of the time by Election Day. During
an election year, the PMI declines by 4% vs. the start of the year (excluding years of
recession, this figure improves to +2%). Once the election is over, however,
investment confidence tends to return and PMIs grow 60% of the time in the 6
months following the event (averaging flattish) and 85% of the time 12 months
afterwards (averaging +9% growth), all of which supports the case for a growth
rebound in 2021.