by Ian Shephardson of Pantheon MacroEconomic ADP and JOLTS are Unreliable Guides to Labor Market Trends The record of the all-new ADP methodology in predicting the first estimate of the monthly official private payroll numbers is unimpressive, as our first chart shows. ADP’s 106K increase in January completely failed to spot the 443K surge in the official measure. This was…
Despite the recent level setting of market expectations and more recent equilibrium found in the major indices, I wouldn’t...
CTAs’ net long position in USD/JPY cut by half from its recent peak Macro hedge funds may act on...
Cross-asset Strategy: Investor sentiment is reaching extreme weakness, with the AAII bull-bear survey metric recording its lowest reading since...
Retail earnings and sales results will come into focus this week and remain in focus through the following week...
RBC Capital’s chief market strategist Lori Calvasina: Welcome to RBC’s Markets in Motion podcast recording August 28th, 2023. I’m...
Let’s begin with a mea culpa. In my note of 18 May 2023, I wrote that the risk/reward for equities...
IN THIS ISSUE • Macro Strategy—Alongside a sharp contraction in economic activity, the equity market has already seen a...
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